Talk:Kaer Morhen/@comment-26145872-20170704213721/@comment-176.93.39.140-20180512001855

I have to agree that massage feels very unlikely if thinking in real life terms. Witchers should have compare technology and displine advantage to what Romans had against Boudica. There Romans defeated estimately 10 times larger fighting force in an open field battle as initial defenders. Loses are estimated to be 20 rebels to a legionare.

If there was a strong mountain fortress aiding defenders then victory for untrained attackers even if numbering thousands would be very unlikely. A compareable assault would be the fall of Constantinople where attackers had about one to ten advantage and arguable minor technology advantages. Also defeners had too small numbers to completely man long walls after Constatinople had shrink heavily from time when walls were build. But still some reports estimate that defenders were slightly unlucky when the final assault managed to break into the city.

Only way to win for an untrained army would be a long siege which cuts defenders from outside food supply. Defenders would then eventually run out of food. I assume Kaer Morhen would get enough fresh water because the area seems to be fairly wet with regular rain fall. But food would be much bigger problem because farming in high altitude is ineffective and often limited to valleys (soil missing from higher up mountain sides or two steep for effective farming). Untrained rebellion style attack in a hostile mountain region would be unlikely to keep effective long siege.

But Lore adds a few mages to aid the attacking army. The mages would allow attacking army direct access into the castle which would then allow attackers swarm defenders but still likely suffering atleast similar loses to Boudica's rebellion.

Even modern day wars requires about 3 times larger attacking army to have a good chance of winning if both sides have about equal training and technology level. But the balance will quickly tilt if there is technology difference. An extreme example would be Europeans taking machne guns to Africa against people without gunpowder (or very limmited access) when colonizing the continent.